Abstract:

Corn is a major food crop worldwide. The development of biobreeding technologies， particularly those based on transgenics and gene editing， holds promise for improving yield and stress resistance. In China， the industrialization of genetically modified corn has not yet been achieved and remains at the pilot stage. To assess the risks in its industrialization process， the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）， combined with expert opinions， was used to quantitatively analyze the key risk factors in the full industrial chain of bio-bred maize in China. The results indicated that the failure of transformant development was the most critical risk， while seed production management， inbred line selection， and trait introgression also require focused prevention and control. Risks during planting and processing were highly interconnected， with issues such as admixture， seed sourcing， and qualification requirements being particularly prominent. Although the regulatory process was considered relatively controllable， improvements were still needed in labeling and testing accuracy. This study provides a quantitative foundation for risk management and policy development in the industrialization of biobreeding technologies.

Key words: biotechnological breeding, commercialization, full industrial chain, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process

摘要：

玉米作为全球重要的粮食作物，其产量与抗逆性的提升高度依赖于以转基因和基因编辑为核心的生物育种技术发展。目前，我国转基因玉米产业化尚未实现，仍处于试范阶段。为评估其产业化进程中的风险，采用层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process，AHP）并结合专业人员意见，对我国生物育种玉米全产业链条产业化过程中的关键风险因素进行量化分析。结果表明，转化体研发失败是首要关键风险点，种子生产管理、自交系选育与目标性状导入等环节也需重点防控；种植与加工阶段风险关联性强，混杂风险、种子来源不明和生产资质缺失等问题较为突出；监管环节风险相对可控，但标识制度和检测能力仍需加强。研究可为推进生物育种玉米产业化进程中的风险防控与政策制定提供量化参考。

关键词: 生物育种, 产业化, 全产业链, 风险评估, 层次分析法